Possible scenario
Retaliation Stays Controlled
30% Chance
Moscow responds militarily, likely with a missile and drone attack on Ukrainian cities, energy infrastructure, or launch facilities. The escalation remains within the established Russia-Ukraine conflict pattern and does not immediately involve NATO forces.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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