Possible scenario
Deep Strikes Continue
40% Chance
Ukraine treats the Proton Defense Electronics Plant strike as part of a sustained campaign against Russian missile, drone, and electronics production. The most likely path is further attacks on military-industrial nodes in western Russia, with disruption but not a decisive near-term break in Russian strike capacity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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