Possible scenario
Congressional inquiry expands
35% Chance
Congress turns the disclosure into a broader inquiry into how Jack Smith's team obtained records from news organizations during the Trump classified-documents investigation. This is the most likely path because the issue is politically salient, but the immediate legal and market effects remain limited.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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