Possible scenario
Marshall Remains Favored
45% Chance
Sen. Roger Marshall remains the favorite because Kansas still leans Republican in federal races and the GOP infrastructure is already aligned behind him. Adam Hamilton's two-term pledge helps frame him as reform-minded, but it is not enough by itself to overcome partisan fundamentals.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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