Possible scenario
Ukrainian Momentum Extends
38% Chance
Ukraine converts September's 486.9 km² gain into further local advances around Lyman, Kreminna, and the Svatove axis. Russian units absorb heavy losses but avoid a theater-wide collapse, making this the most likely continuation of current battlefield trends.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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