Possible scenario
Russian Counter-Escalation
18% Chance
The Kremlin responds to battlefield losses with missile and drone strikes, reserve deployments, or a localized counterattack. This scenario is less likely than stabilization, but Russia has repeatedly used escalation to offset battlefield setbacks and signal resolve.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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