Possible scenario
State Probe Advances
38% Chance
The admission gives President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and the Lebanese Armed Forces a stronger legal and political basis to widen the investigation. Hezbollah protests the process but avoids direct confrontation, calculating that open defiance would risk further loss of domestic legitimacy and foreign aid.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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