Possible scenario
Hezbollah Obstructs Probe
22% Chance
Hezbollah hardliners reject further investigation and portray the explosives as resistance material against Israel. The government avoids a direct crackdown, but the standoff erodes confidence in Beirut's ability to enforce the March 2026 ban.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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