Possible scenario
Private Execution Proceeds
40% Chance
Trump makes a final decision to cancel any public livestream while allowing the military execution process to continue. This is the most likely outcome because the White House can claim control after conflicting statements while reducing litigation, security, and reputational risks for the Pentagon.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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