Possible scenario
Partial Reopening
20% Chance
A diplomatic or military arrangement reopens a narrow, monitored corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. Marine fuel prices retrace part of the spike as traders price in recovering Gulf supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.5%
- Energy -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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