Possible scenario
Disruption Persists
35% Chance
Hormuz traffic remains severely constrained while the St. Petersburg fuel-export threat keeps European bunker supply tight. Shipping lines expand surcharges and prioritize contracted customers, keeping marine fuel prices elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
- Industrials -2.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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