Possible scenario
Inflation Reaccelerates
15% Chance
New inflation or wage data reopens the case for tightening by suggesting the six-year low in core inflation was not durable. This would validate BMO’s more hawkish view and push market pricing toward a higher probability of a near-term hike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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