Possible scenario
Hike Case Prevails
40% Chance
The Bank of Canada raises rates by 25 basis points as policymakers decide that inflation risks still outweigh the recent weakening in jobs and growth. This is plausible because market pricing has moved back toward a hike despite the six-year low in core inflation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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