Possible scenario
Oil Conditions Dominate
22% Chance
A deal emerges, but the binding element is India's oil sourcing rather than a broad trade breakthrough. This path is plausible because the tariff dispute began with U.S. pressure over Russian oil and Rubio recently defended the tariff delay as tied to oil-market risks.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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