Possible scenario
Delay Extended Again
18% Chance
The visit prevents a breakdown but does not finalize a pact. Both governments cite progress and create technical working groups, leaving markets with continued uncertainty but no immediate policy shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.