Possible scenario
Deal Signed Quickly
50% Chance
Rubio's visit produces a final political agreement, with USTR and India's Commerce Ministry completing tariff schedules and oil-related language within days. This is the base case because both sides already appeared near a deal after the earlier deadlock, and the tariff delay created room for a face-saving compromise.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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