Possible scenario
Iran Tightens Chokepoint
30% Chance
Iran follows the threat with additional interdictions, mining, or seizures while stopping short of a declared war with the United States. This path is plausible because recent attacks show Tehran is willing to absorb escalation risk to force concessions over the Strait.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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