Possible scenario
Escorts Test Iran
40% Chance
Washington answers the IRGC challenge with a visible but calibrated escort and mine-countermeasure operation rather than immediate large-scale strikes. This is the most likely path because CENTCOM has already moved forces into the area, but both sides still have incentives to avoid a direct war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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