Possible scenario
Backchannel Pause
18% Chance
Regional intermediaries use the danger of a direct clash to push a narrow maritime arrangement rather than a broader political settlement. A pause is credible because Iran may have demonstrated leverage, while the United States and Gulf states want tanker flows stabilized quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +4.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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