Possible scenario
Paxton Stabilizes Race
30% Chance
Republicans respond quickly to the fundraising alarm by consolidating donors, outside groups, and conservative media behind Paxton. Talarico keeps a major financial advantage, but Texas's partisan baseline and GOP turnout machinery keep Paxton favored.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.