Possible scenario
Costliest Toss-Up
20% Chance
The fundraising shock produces a self-reinforcing spending war rather than a clear partisan advantage. Both campaigns and outside groups flood Texas media markets, and the race becomes one of the most expensive Senate contests in U.S. history.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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