Possible scenario
Prolonged Monitoring Standoff
28% Chance
Iran continues accusing Washington and Jerusalem of politicizing the IAEA while denying inspectors full access to damaged sites. The dispute hardens into a sanctions-and-verification standoff, but without immediate direct military action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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