Possible scenario
Managed IAEA Dispute
42% Chance
Iran’s accusation remains primarily diplomatic, with Tehran using the claim to resist intrusive inspection demands without fully breaking with the IAEA. Director General Rafael Grossi, Oman, Qatar, and EU diplomats keep talks alive around limited access to the attacked sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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