Possible scenario
Escalation Around Sites
18% Chance
A breakdown in verification increases the chance that Israel, Iran, or aligned regional forces take coercive action. This remains a lower-probability path, but it carries the largest short-term market impact because of oil supply and Gulf security risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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