Possible scenario
East-West Stopgap
30% Chance
Rather than committing immediately to a new multibillion-dollar corridor, Riyadh may first maximize the East-West pipeline to Yanbu and harden existing export nodes. This is the fastest way to shift barrels away from Hormuz, though it leaves Saudi exports exposed to Houthi missile and drone threats near the Red Sea.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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