Possible scenario
Upside CPI Surprise
25% Chance
Inflation comes in above the 3.6% median, reinforcing concerns that diesel, gasoline, and import-cost pressures are bleeding into broader prices. Markets reprice a more cautious Federal Reserve stance and sell rate-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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