Possible scenario
Inflation Matches Forecasts
45% Chance
The September CPI report lands close to the 3.6% consensus, confirming that inflation remains sticky but not sharply worse than expected. Markets treat the data as a validation of already priced-in energy and tariff effects rather than a new macro shock.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Technology -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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