Possible scenario
Allied Enforcement Widens
18% Chance
The U.S. persuades allies to synchronize sanctions, customs inspections, and export-control enforcement. This would increase the cost of Iranian procurement and raise legal risk for middlemen in Turkey, the Gulf, and East Asia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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