Possible scenario
Fed Reprices Hawkish
27% Chance
Markets focus less on growth resilience and more on the implication that the Federal Reserve has little urgency to ease policy. The claims data push Treasury yields higher and create a modest headwind for duration-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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