Possible scenario
Durable Labor Strength
38% Chance
The low claims reading proves to be a genuine signal that employers are still reluctant to shed workers. Payroll growth remains positive, consumer spending holds up, and investors interpret the data as evidence that the US economy can avoid a near-term recession.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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