Possible scenario
Enforcement Push Expands
28% Chance
DOJ, DHS, and state election officials use the Supreme Court's permission for Social Security citizenship checks to accelerate reviews of voter rolls. The effort produces more referrals and lawsuits, but the near-term market effect remains modest because this is a political-legal process rather than a direct economic shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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