Possible scenario
Case Stays Isolated
42% Chance
The indictment remains a narrow criminal matter involving one illegal 2024 ballot, with prosecutors using it to support existing enforcement claims but not alleging a wider conspiracy. This is the most likely path because single-voter cases are easier to prove than coordinated fraud and usually end in pleas, fines, probation, or immigration consequences.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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