Possible scenario
Direct Deterrence Cycle
15% Chance
The rhetoric feeds into a sharper military deterrence exchange between Israel and Iran. A direct strike remains less likely than proxy activity, but even limited action would produce a clearer risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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