Possible scenario
Commercial Fallout
19% Chance
OpenAI and Anthropic move from quiet coordination to commercial confrontation over responsible disclosure, API misuse, and competitive intelligence. The fallout is meaningful for the named AI labs but remains too narrow to justify broad macro shocks.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.5%
- AMZN-0.2%
- GOOG+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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