Possible scenario
Hiring Reaccelerates
20% Chance
A less likely but important scenario is that the 90,000 gain is the start of a stronger labor rebound. This would reduce recession risk but could also complicate the Federal Reserve’s easing path if wage growth or inflation expectations firm.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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