Possible scenario
Attribution Hardens
38% Chance
Finnish investigators conclude the intimidation campaign was coordinated by actors tied to Russian intelligence or state-linked proxies. Helsinki responds through expulsions, EU coordination, and tighter parliamentary security, while avoiding a direct military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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