Possible scenario
Trump Keeps Pact
25% Chance
Trump may calculate that energy-price relief and support for Hungary outweigh congressional criticism. In this scenario, the administration proceeds with sanctions relief while arguing that the pact lowers diesel costs and preserves leverage over Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.