Possible scenario
Deal Is Scrapped
25% Chance
Bipartisan congressional pressure, criticism from Zelensky, and European opposition could force Trump into a reversal. Scrapping the deal would preserve the sanctions regime but also remove expected diesel supply relief.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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