Possible scenario
Deal Gets Rewritten
40% Chance
The most likely path is a face-saving compromise that lets Trump avoid a direct reversal while answering bipartisan pressure from the House and Senate. The pact is delayed, narrowed, or conditioned on verification that Russian state revenue is limited, reducing the immediate transatlantic rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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