Possible scenario
Ukrainian Momentum Continues
40% Chance
Ukraine converts September's gains around Lyman into additional pressure on the Svatove-Kreminna axis. Russian units remain stretched after high casualties, while Kyiv concentrates drones, artillery, and assault brigades for limited but steady advances.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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