Possible scenario
Russian Escalation Response
20% Chance
Moscow reacts to the territorial setback with heavier fires, drone strikes, and limited counterattacks rather than accepting a continued retreat. The escalation remains below direct NATO-Russia confrontation but increases near-term geopolitical risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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