Possible scenario
Front Stabilizes
28% Chance
Russia absorbs the recent territorial loss and prevents Ukraine from turning localized gains into an operational rupture. The war returns to positional fighting, with both sides prioritizing artillery, drones, and reserve rotation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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