Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation
25% Chance
Riyadh responds militarily against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure, potentially including sites linked to Iranian support networks. The market reaction is larger because retaliation raises the chance of repeated attacks on energy and aviation assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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