Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and possibly U.S. officials press both sides to revive cease-fire mechanics after the attack. This outcome is plausible because both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have previously used backchannels after energy-infrastructure incidents to avoid a wider war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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