Possible scenario
Aid Reaches Farms
42% Chance
The Agriculture Department moves quickly to distribute fuel reimbursements or credits before the bulk of harvest fuel bills come due. This is the most likely path because the program fits Trump’s recent diesel-tax push and directly targets farm-state anger over high diesel prices and weaker exports.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- DE+1.6%
- AGCO+1.4%
- CNH+1.2%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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