Possible scenario
National Political Escalation
20% Chance
The incident becomes a national flashpoint because it follows prior reports of police suppression of anti-Trump protests and FBI arrests of Los Angeles protesters. Congress, the Justice Department, and the Trump White House or campaign apparatus are drawn into a larger dispute over political policing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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