Possible scenario
Contained Legal Fallout
35% Chance
The incident is treated primarily as a local assault and crowd-control controversy rather than a broader national rupture. Prosecutors, the police department, and the Trump campaign each try to limit exposure by emphasizing the specific facts captured on video.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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