Possible scenario
Russia Escalates Strikes
20% Chance
Moscow could follow the bus strike with a broader campaign against Ukrainian transport, power, and urban infrastructure. Given the timeline of repeated attacks near Kyiv and Kramatorsk, this is a plausible but less likely near-term escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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