Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
25% Chance
A diplomatic off-ramp becomes credible as Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries push for guarantees on commercial shipping. Oil's risk premium narrows, though not fully, because investors remain skeptical after months of attacks and blockade threats.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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