Possible scenario
Dead Heat Finish
21% Chance
The race remains inside one percentage point through Election Night, with late absentee ballots and provisional ballots determining the winner. Given the one-point poll spread, a recount or extended canvass is a realistic outcome if neither campaign opens a clear late lead.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.